The 10-year sovereign yield in Japan experienced a notable uptick, exceeding 10 basis points, following comments made by Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday. The Governor’s statements were perceived as hawkish by traders, triggering a temporary surge in yields. This development coincided with a strengthening trend observed in the Japanese yen across various currency pairs.
Despite the yen’s rally reaching multi-year highs, analysts view the retracement as a natural pause rather than a worrisome bearish reversal. In Japan’s swap markets, there is a growing anticipation of a 25-basis-point rate increase by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in April. The probability of this scenario is currently estimated at 58%, up from 44% recorded at the conclusion of the previous week.
While Asia is positioned to benefit from the anticipated easing by the Federal Reserve, certain segments of Wall Street are reconsidering their forecasts. Swap traders in the United States are scaling back expectations of a rate cut in March, prompting a reassessment of the broader market outlook. Tuesday saw positive movements in US equities, setting the stage for an influx of company reports that will provide valuable insights into the global economic landscape. Meanwhile, the oil market exhibited stability, influenced by signals of reduced US inventories and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which were counterbalanced by expectations of increased supplies.