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Fed Signals Caution on Rate Moves, Futures Suggest 25% Odds of Rate Cut in March

3 months ago

The recently unveiled Fed minutes from Tuesday revealed a consensus among policymakers to exercise prudence in their approach to future interest-rate adjustments, emphasizing a careful evaluation based on progress towards meeting inflation targets. At present, swap contracts tied to upcoming Fed meetings reflect a roughly 25% likelihood of the Fed initiating its first rate cut by March. A scenario of robust economic and inflationary data before December might prompt an uptick in longer-term rates, potentially negating the necessity for another rate hike, hence reducing expectations for further increases.

Meanwhile, investors displayed restraint in their sale of 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, with subdued demand influenced by the substantial rally earlier this month and capital outflows from exchange-traded funds tracking this sector.

In the commodities market, oil prices stabilized, showing signs of steadiness amidst indications of a forthcoming increase in US stockpiles, coinciding with an approaching OPEC+ meeting addressing supply concerns over the weekend.

Today’s Events Calendar

Tuesday, November 22

  • Eurozone consumer confidence, Wednesday
  • US initial jobless claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, durable goods, Wednesday
  • Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks, Wednesday

For a comprehensive understanding of the market’s outlook as provided by our esteemed analysts, we kindly invite you to visit our website.